Stochastic Methods in Credit Risk Modelling, Valuation and

Stochastic Methods in Credit Risk Modelling, Valuation and Hedging Introduction to Credit Risk and Credit Derivatives Tomasz R. Bielecki Northeastern Illinois University [email protected] In collaboration with Marek Rutkowski

Part 1: Portfolio Credit Risk Measuring credit risk. Portfolio analysis. CVaR models. CreditMetrics. CreditGrades. Counterparty credit risk. Reference credit risk. TRB 2

Part 2: Credit Derivatives Counterparty credit risk. Reference credit risk. Classification of credit derivatives. Total return swaps. Credit default swaps. Spread linked swaps. Credit options. TRB 3

Part 3: Mathematical Modelling Merton’s model of corporate debt. Black and Cox approach. Intensity-based approach to credit risk. Hybrid models. Implied probabilities of default. Markov models of credit ratings. Market risk and term structure models. TRB 4

Credit Risk: Modelling, Valuation and Hedging Part 1: Portfolio Credit Risk The central point is the quantitative estimate of the amount of economic capital needed to support a bank s risk-taking activities

Measuring Credit Risk Credit risk models should capture: Systematic vs Idiosyncratic Risk Sources Credit spread risk, Downgrade risk (credit rating), Default risk (default probability), Recovery rate risk (recovery rate), Exposure at default (loss given default), Portfolio diversification (correlation risk), Historical Probabilities vs Risk-Neutral Probabilities. TRB 6

Portfolio Analysis I What is really important: Concentration risk, Basle Committee 25% rule; Herfindahl-Hirshman Index Diversification effect, Rating structure, CVaR, Credit Value-at-Risk Risk-adjusted performance measures, Capital optimisation, Sensitivity and stress test analysis. TRB 7

Portfolio Analysis II Important questions to risk managers: How should we define and measure credit risk of a portfolio of loans or bonds? What are the measures of capital profitability the bank should apply? What is the risk-return profile of the bank’s credit portfolio? What is the capital amount required for the assumed rating of the bank’s credit portfolio? TRB 8

Portfolio Analysis III Which credit exposures represent the highest risk-adjusted profitability? What are the main factors affecting the bank’s credit portfolio risk-adjusted profitability? What are the main sources of the bank’s credit risk concentration and diversification? How can the bank improve it’s portfolio profitability? TRB 9

CVaR Models I Types of Credit Risk Models: Risk aggregation: - Top-down, Aggregate risk in consumer, credit card, etc., portfolios; default rates for entire portfolios - Bottom-up, Individual asset level; default rates for individual obligors. Systemic factors recognition: - Conditional, - Unconditional. Default measurement: - Default mode, Two modes: default or no-default - Mark-to-market (model), Credit migrations accounted for. TRB 10

CVaR Models II Currently proposed industry sponsored CVaR models: CreditMetrics (RiskMetrics), CreditGrades (RiskMetrics), Credit Monitor/EDF (KMV/Moody’s), CreditRisk (Credit Suisse FB), CreditPortfolioView (McKinsey). TRB 11

CVaR Models III TRB 12

CreditMetrics I A tool for assessing portfolio risk due to changes in debt value caused by changes in obligor credit quality. Changes in value caused not only by possible default events, but also by upgrades and downgrades in credit quality are included. The value-at-risk (VaR) - the volatility of value, not just the expected losses, is assessed. TRB 13

CreditMetrics II Risk is assessed within the full context of a portfolio. The correlation of credit quality moves across obligors is addressed. This allows to directly calculate the diversification benefits. Value changes are relatively small with minor up(down)grades, but could be substantial if there is a default (rare event). This is far from the more normally distributed market risks that VaR models typically address. TRB 14

CreditMetrics III TRB 15

CreditMetrics IV TRB 16

CreditGrades I Is meant to provide a simple framework linking the credit risk and equity markets (a first-passage-time model). Tracks the risk-neutral default probabilities. Based on the ideas of the structural approach, due to Merton (1973), Black and Cox (1976). Main deficiency are artificially low short-term credit spreads. CreditGrades corrects this by taking random default barrier and recovery rate. This is essentially a pricing model TRB 17

CreditGrades II Asset value V follows a lognormal proces with a constant volatility (under real-world probability). Default occurs at the first crossing of the default barrier by V. Default barrier is the product of the expected global recovery of the firm’s liabilities and the current debt per share of the firm. The CreditGrade is the model-implied 5-year credit spread. TRB 18

CreditGrades III TRB 19

CreditGrades: Case Study TRB 20

CreditGrades: Spin Summary TRB 21

CreditGrades: No Spin Critique CG appears to mix statistical and risk neutral probabilities. CG assumes no-drift condition for asset value process, which appears to be unjustified. Transparent formulae for probabilities of default resulting in CG framework and, apparently, relying on market observables only, appear to be founded on questionable (in general) relationship between volatility of equity and volatility of the asset value process. TRB 22

Credit Monitor I Credit Monitor provides M-KMV’s EDF credit measures on corporate and financial firms globally, updated on a monthly basis with up to five years of historical EDF information. EDF (expected default frequency) is a forward looking measure of actual probability of default. EDF is firm specific. Credit Monitor model follows the structural approach to calculate EDF’s. [The credit risk is driven by the firm’s value process.] TRB 23

Credit Monitor II Credit Monitor deals with firms whose equities are publicly traded. The market information contained in the firm’s stock price and the balance sheet is mapped to the firm’s EDF. Credit Monitor used in M-KVM’s Portfolio Manager TRB 24

CreditRisk I An approach focused only on default event; it ignores migration and market risk. For a large number of obligors, the number of defaults during a given period has a Poisson distribution. The loss distribution of a bond/loan portfolio is derived. Belongs to the class of intensity-based (or reduced-form) models. Default risk is not linked to the capital structure of the firm. TRB 25

CreditRisk II TRB 26

CreditPortfolioView A multifactor model focused on the simulation of the joint distribution of default and migration probabilities for various rating groups. Default/migration probabilities are linked to the state of the economy through macroeconomic factors (an econometric model). Conditional probabilities of default are modelled as a logit function of the index: TRB 27

Credit Risk: Modelling, Valuation and Hedging Part 2: Credit Derivatives The central points are providing protection against credit risk and diversification of credit risk exposure

Counterparty Credit Risk Derivatives trading generates exposure to the credit risk of the counterparty involved in a given contract (typical examples: bonds, vulnerable options, defaultable swaps). Counterparty credit risk is a function of: Creditworthiness of the counterparty, Size of profits accrued yet unrealised, Ability to use legally binding netting agreements. TRB 29

Reference Credit Risk Credit derivatives are privately held negotiable bilateral contracts that allow users to manage their exposure to credit risk, so-called reference credit risk. Credit derivatives are financial assets like forward contracts, swaps and options for which the price is driven by the credit risk of economic agents (private investors or governments). TRB 30

Why Credit Derivatives? Credit derivatives connect the different fixed-income markets by being the “clearing-house” for credit risk transfer. Insurance against credit events to reduce borrowing costs. Diversification of exposure by means of synthetic loans. Assume positions in markets that might otherwise be inaccessible. Accounting and tax advantages. TRB 31

Default Protection Default protection: Suppose a bank concerned that one of its customers may not be able to repay a loan. The bank can protect itself against loss by transferring the credit risk to another party, while keeping the loan on its books. Useful links: www.defaultrisk.com www.margrabe.com TRB 32

Special Features Pay-out typically based on extremal event (for instance, the default event). Limited liquidity (currently). Insurance components may require actuarial analysis (under statistical probability). Operational risk management important - can’t buy perfect insurance, and tail events are extremal (Bankers Trust) TRB 33

A Simplified Taxonomy Credit derivatives are usually rather involved. They can be divided into three basic classes: Swaps: - Total rate of return swap, default swap, and spread-linked swap. Notes: - Default note, spread-linked note, and levered notes. Options: - Price, spread, and default options. TRB 34

Spectrum TRB 35

Vanilla Credit Derivatives Total return (or asset) swap - TRS, Credit-linked note - CLN, Credit default swap (or option) - CDS, Securitized pool (of corporates) - CDO, Option on a corporate bond, Credit spread swap (or option), Insured cash-flow stream (swap guarantee). TRB 36

Total Return Swap I Asset Total Return Party A Party B Floating Payments Underlying assets may be bonds, loans, or other credit instruments. Permits the separation of asset ownership and economic exposure: balance sheet rental or out-sourcing, for example. TRB 37

Total Return Swap II Total Rate of Return Swap is a derivative contract that simulates the purchase of an instrument (note, bond, share, etc.) with 100% financing, typically floating rate. The contract may be marked to market at each reset date, with the total return receiver receiving (paying) any increase in value of the underlying instrument, and the total return payer receiving (paying) any decrease in the value of the underlying instrument. TRB 38

Credit Default Swap I Default Premium Party A Party B Recovery (after default) Recovery is paid only if there is a default, so this is a “pure” credit risk product. That is, price and spread risk is stripped away. B’s exposure is like that of an off-balance sheet loan. TRB 39

Credit Default Swap II Credit default swap is a contract between a buyer and a seller of protection, in which: (a) the buyer of protection pays the seller a fixed, regular fee, (b) the seller of protection provides the buyer with a contingent exchange that occurs either at the maturity of the underlying instrument or at the swap's date of early termination. The trigger event for the contingent payoff is a defined credit event (a default on the underlying instrument or other related event). TRB 40

Credit Default Swap III TRB 41

Credit Default Swap IV TRB 42

Credit Default Swap V TRB 43

Spread-Linked Swap Periodic payments Party A Party B Payments based on spread B’s payments are based on the credit spread of a reference security. B may only make a final payment at maturity based on the credit spread. A pays LIBOR plus a fixed spread, say. TRB 44

Default Notes Default notes: For example, an issuer (credit card company, say) agrees to pay back 100 at maturity and 8% coupons semiannually, but if some default event occurs the coupons drop to 4%. The investor will pay less than he would for a similar note without credit-linkage in compensation for the option he has sold to the issuer. Spread-linked notes: Like above, except that here the coupon paid by the investor depends on the credit spread for some reference security. TRB 45

Levered Notes For example, corporate bonds might be pooled, and the cash-flows repackaged in the form of a note that pays a high (leveraged) coupon in return for accepting with this the risk that the payments will stop (or be significantly reduced) if there are one or more defaults in the pool. The cash-flows might also be packaged in the form of lower-yielding money market instruments, thus earning profits for the issuer (at the cost of accepting some of the credit risk). In this case, it is the issuer who assumes the levered position. TRB 46

Credit Options Security with the payoff contingent on the following credit events: the price of a reference security drops below a strike price (determined by a strike spread), the credit spread for a reference security tightens or widens, or there is a default event of the reference entity. TRB 47

Exotic Variations Basket credit derivatives (correlation-sensitive products). Event-contingent option (if a certain project is completed on time, say). Real options (sell real decision risk instead of market factor risk). Fixed-income products linked to earthquakes or other catastrophes. Notes linked to real earnings and inflation (less volatility in real rates). TRB 48

Types of Risks Credit risk (obvious) and the price risk (since this affects profitability, and therefore credit quality). Operational risk (contingency planing for worst-case scenario, for example). Liquidity risk (can be mitigated by doing deals back-to-back, and including early termination provisions). Legal risk (Orange County). TRB 49

Benefits from Credit Derivatives Better serve customer needs. Diversification of exposures. Efficient use of balance sheet. Profiting from market views. Traders receive information on order flow, customer interest, etc. TRB 50

Credit Risk: Modelling, Valuation and Hedging Part 3: Mathematical Modelling The central point is providing formal quantitative tools to properly serve the purposes listed in Parts 1 and 2

Merton’s Model of Corporate Debt Let us denote: V - total value of the firm’s assets, L - face value of the firm’s debt, T - maturity of the debt, - (random) time of default. Default occurs at time T if the total value of the firm’s assets at time T is lower than the face value L of the firm’s debt. TRB 52

Dynamics of Firm’s Assets The process representing the total value of the firm’s assets is governed by the stochastic (random) equation: where is the standard Brownian motion (one-dimensional Wiener process). The interest rate and the dividend yield are constant. TRB 53

Merton’s Default Time The time of default is given by The recovery payoff at time equals and thus the corporate bond satisfies TRB 54

Merton’s Valuation Formula The price at time bond equals: of a -maturity corporate where is the time to maturity and TRB 55

Black and Cox Model Basic assumptions of Merton’s model are preserved. Value of firm’s assets is lognormally distributed. The random instant of default is specified as the first moment the value of the firm crosses some barrier: premature default. The latter assumption is assumed to represent the socalled safety covenants. Closed-form solution for the value of corporate debt is available (but it is rather involved). TRB 56

Structural Approach The total value of the firm’s assets is not easily observed. The total value of shares can be taken as a proxy. The internal structure of the reference firm is an essential ingredient of the model. On the other hand, both the cross-default provision and the debt’s seniority structure are relatively easy to cover. TRB 57

Intensity-Based Approach Value of the firm is not explicitly modelled. The intensity of the random time of default plays the role of a model’s input. Valuation result for corporate bonds and credit derivatives are relatively simple, even in the case of basket credit derivatives. In practice, the intensity of default can be inferred from observed prices of bonds (the calibrated or implied default intensity). TRB 58

Default Time Structural approach: is a predictable stopping time with respect to the filtration generated by the value process. Default is announced by a sequence of stopping times. Intensity-based approach: is a totally inaccessible stopping time with respect to the reference filtration (including the observations of the default time. Default comes as a surprise. TRB 59

Credit Ratings Some more recent methods take into account not only the default event, but also the current and futures rating of each firm. In most cases, the process that models the up/downgrades is a Markov process. Instead of a default intensity, the whole matrix of intensities of migrations is specified. Official ratings are given by specialized rating agencies; they do not necessarily reflect (riskneutral) probabilities of credit migrations. TRB 60

Intensities of Migrations The matrix of intensities of credit migrations has the following form where K is the number of credit ratings and the K-th class represents default event. State K is an absorbing state. TRB 61

References M. Ammann: Credit Risk Valuation: Methods, Models, and Applications. Springer 2001. A. Arvanitis and J. Gregory: Credit Risk: The Complete Guide. Risk Books 2001. T. R. Bielecki and M. Rutkowski: Credit Risk: Modelling, Valuation and Hedging. Springer 2002. D. Cossin and H. Pirotte: Advanced Credit Risk Analysis. J. Wiley & Sons 2000. B. Schmid: Pricing Credit Linked Financial Instruments. Springer 2002. D. Duffie and K. J. Singleton: Credit Risk, Princeton University Press 2003.

CreditGrades II TRB 63