Revisiting “Dreams vs Reality”made to Café Scientifique September 2015

Revisiting “Dreams vs Reality”made to Café Scientifique September 2015 Presentation 1

Portland Work across the fuel and energy sector – Energy Hedging for small to medium sized fuel and energy users – Emergency Stock Tickets / Delegations – Diesel & Renewable Diesel Suppliers (bulk and fuel card) – Renewable Fuel Certificates, Carbon Emissions and Voluntary Offsets – Importers and wholesalers of Automotive Urea into UK – Manufacturers of Diesel Emission Reducers (AdBlue) and Exhaust Fluids – Global Fuel Advisory Services – Data and Pricing Service 2

The Renewables Reality Check – 2015 presentation Energy Consumption Figures: Tonnes Oil Equivalent (Billions) Latest figures Country 2022 % vs 2014 1.85 USA 2.18 -4% 1.78 9.23 China 3.80 33% 0.70 4.83 0.84 Russia 0.82 17% 0.28 0.59 0.49 6.92 India 1.01 71% Japan 0.51 0.47 3.73 0.73 Japan 0.41 -13% Canada 0.29 0.33 10.31 0.18 Canada 0.30 -9% Germany 0.33 0.33 4.40 0.43 Germany 0.27 -18% Britain 0.29 0.30 4.62 0.37 Britain 0.19 -37% Brazil 0.18 0.28 1.39 1.16 Brazil 0.31 11% TOTAL 5.68 8.12 5.77*OECD 21.71 TOTAL 9.61 18% Country 1999 2014 (14/Head) 2029? USA 2.24 2.27 7.09 China 0.95 2.85 Russia 0.61 India 3

The Global Power Mix – 2014 vs present day Electricity Generation by Source (TWh*) Primary Energy by Source (TWh equivalent) Source 2014 % 2022 % Coal 9,552 40.6 10,212 35.6 Gas 5,084 21.6 6,444 Oil 1,124 4.8 Nuclear 2,474 Hydro 2014 % 2022 % Coal 44,858 27.7 44,854 25.1 22.5 Gas 33,977 21.0 39,413 22.0 904 3.2 Oil 49,935 30.8 52,970 29.6 10.5 2,632 9.2 Nuclear 6,606 4.1 6,702 3.7 3,863 16.4 4,289 15.0 Hydro 10,536 6.5 11,300 6.3 Wind 716 3.0 2,098 7.3 Wind 1,912 1.2 5,488 3.1 Solar 198 0.8 1,310 4.6 Solar 534 0.3 3,448 1.9 Biomass 432 1.8 675 2.4 Biomass 11,220 6.9 11,111 6.2 Other 76 0.3 95 0.3 Other 2,440 1.5 3,613 2.0 TOTAL 23,519 * Terrawatt Hour 28,661 Source TOTAL 162,018 178,899 4

Topic 1: Mobility 2015 “35% of electricity in the UK comes from Coal” “Most batteries expend more energy in production than they produce” “Electric bus battery costs three times more than the bus itself” 2024 Zero coal generation in UK – – But Worldwide electricity generation from coal hit record high in 2023 China currently building 100 coal fired power stations – Although electric bus still 2.5 times more expensive than new diesel bus Battery range significantly improved Significant reduction in cost of batteries (50% ) 2030 All new cars will be hybrid / electric with minimum 100m electric range Major environmental issues with battery metal mining and processing Europe to pay dearly for China’s domination of e-batteries 5

Reduced automotive oil demand cars are more efficient and going electric 6

But dangerous reliance on China for ebatteries and every other form of renewable energy 7

Topic 2: Biofuels 2015 “targets have led to mass deforestation in parts of the tropics” “Food vs Fuel” remains controversial 2024 Liquid fuels still the only viable option for heavy mobility Tougher legislation has reduced deforestation and food vs fuel – Although still spectacular fraud in Asian used cooking oil markets HVO (Renewable Diesel) taking over as “biofuel” of choice 2030 Traditional biofuels (blended with diesel) will plateau at 20% HVO will account for circa 50% of heavy-duty diesel pot System will continue to have “scandalous” loopholes 8

Topic 3: Wind Power 2015 “Globally available source of energy” “less than 5% of UK energy needs” “Wind gen cannot be stored and so back-up fossil fuel power needed” “strong nimbyism” 2024 Wind Power has been big success in Europe – particularly the UK – Britain biggest wind power nation in Europe – up to 40% electricity from wind But you still cannot store wind generation. No wind no generation – No wind no generation, so fossil fuel back up still required No European turbine manufacturer is making money 2030 UK’s recent failed offshore auction, Orsted’s (effective) liquidation of US assets and Vattenfall’s development halt in North Sea don’t bode well – But still likely that Rest of Europe will match UK’s 40% level Battery storage technology still not applied to turbines 9

Topic 4: Tidal Power 2015 “Intellectually fashionable” “Proven technology, eg, La Rance (France), Sihwa Lake (South Korea) “Initial construction enormously costly” 2024 No progress at all Still some interest in Tidal Stream Energy (rather than Tidal Barrage) Nimbyism remains enormously strong Huge time-lag between project commencement and tangible generation – Means capital flows will go to alternatives 2030 If it has made no progress by 2024, 2030 seems equally unlikely 10

Topic 5: Solar Power 2015 “Utilisation of the ultimate energy source” “Solar storage progressing rapidly – can Musk deliver on his Powerwall”? “You need the sun and lots of land” “only a maximum of 10% of energy mix likely” 2024 Incredible progress in solar technology – sun no longer needs to shine! 80% reduction in costs of solar panels “Smart money” moving from wind to solar investment for power gen – 360bn invested in Solar in 2023 vs 220bn in wind (and 50bn in gas) 2030 “Scientists envision 20-fold increase in solar PV power by 2030” (GASERI) Relentless growth – at least 15% of electricity generation by 2030 Coupled with exponential growth in solar battery storage 11

Growth in Grid scale battery storage solar utilisation and grid balancing 12

2024 Conclusions vs 2015 Politicians, Activists and the Gen Public don’t really “get” energy Ideology foe of implementation Truer than ever with increasing global energy use 10bn people by 2050 means inevitable WRONG! Industry & Agri more problematic Much bigger issue today than 2015 “Net Zero” is now hindering progress Energy policy must be politically, practically and economically realistic most haven’t really 13

Finally – the ongoing energy “trilemma” Environment and a new one for Europe Markets & Prices Supply Security 14

Topic 6: Home Heating 2024 6m heat pumps installed across Europe in 2023 vs 2.5m in 2014 – UK lags miles behind – – A total of 19m heat pumps in Europe and almost 2/3 Nordic housing on heat pumps 564 heat pumps per 100K people gives UK 2nd lowest level in Europe (above Hungary) Italy sold 500,000 heat pumps in 2022. The UK sold 60,000. Meaningless targets from the current Government will not be fulfilled – Blatant misinformation from heat pump manufacturers has not helped “The only thing heat pumps require is air!” “Installation costs as low as 9,000” Britain not alone. Heat pumps have emerged as key flashpoint in Germany’s rapidly escalating “culture wars” 2030 European installations will continue apace. All new houses by 2030 UK will continue to be a “basket case” in this area. Haphazard and dishonest initial execution may have caused terminal damage? 15

PORTLAND [email protected] 44 (0) 1904 570 021 www.stabilityfromvolatility.co.uk 16