Chapter ThirtyThree: Growth and Sustainability in the

Chapter ThirtyThree: Growth and Sustainability in the Twenty-First Century

Climate Change

Figure 33.1: Global Temperature Trends, 19002100 Source: U.S. Global Change Research Program, www.globalchange.gov .

Economic Growth and the Environment

Kg S02 per Capita Sulfur dioxide emissions per capita (kg) Sulfur dioxide emissions per capita (kg) Figure 33.2: Environmental Kuznets Curve for Sulfur Dioxide Emissions 250 200 150 100 50 0- 0 5000 10000 15000 GNP per Capita 20000 25000 Source: Panayotou, T., "Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” 1993. capita GNPGNP per per capita Source: T. Panayotou, “Empirical Tests and Policy Analysis of Environmental Degradation at Different Levels of Development,” International Labour Office Working Paper, 1993.

Figure 33.3: Carbon Dioxide Emissions vs GDP per Capita, 2009 Brunei United Arab Emirates Bahrain United States Saudi Arabia Kazakhstan Norway China India Switzerland Sweden Gabon Source: World Bank, World Development Indicators Database 2013.

Figure 33.4: Environmentally Based Taxes as a Share of Total Tax Revenue, Select Industrialized Countries Percent of total tax revenue 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Source: OECD, OECD/EEA Instruments Database 2007

Table 33.1: Global Population Classification by Income and Environmental Impacts, 2013 Source: World Bank, Little Green Data Book 2013; World Development Indicators 2013.

Figure 33.5: A Consumption Possibilities Frontier Leisure Europe United States Income, Consumption

Are Stabilization and Sustainability in Conflict?

Figure 33.6: Growth Reaching a Steady-State Resource-using Economic Activities Steady State Time

Index (2005 100) Figure 33.7: A No-Growth Scenario for the Canadian Economy 200 GDP/Capita 150 100 GHG Unemployment Poverty Debt to GDP 50 0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Year Source: Adapted from Peter Victor, Managing Without Growth: Slower by Deisgn, not Disaster. Northampton, MA: Edward Elgar, 2008, p. 182.

Appendix: Demographic Challenges

Table 33.2: Stages of Demographic Transition

Figure 33.8: Population by Age and Sex, United States, 1900, 2000, and 2040 (projected) (a) 1900 (b) 2000 (c) 2040, projected Source: Wan Wan He, Manisha Sengupta, Victoria A. Velkoff, and Kimberly A. DeBarros, U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Reports, P23–209, “65 in the United States: 2005”, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 2005.

Figure 33.9: Old-Age Dependency Ratios, 1950-2050 Old-Age Dependency Ratio 70 Italy 60 50 40 30 United States 20 10 China 0 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 Year Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2006 Revision, Population Database. Figure based on mediumvariant projections. 2050