Budget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December

Budget10 released on 5 December 2011 ppt version 8 December 2011 Carbon Budget 2010

GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 Contributors Thomas A. Boden Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee USA Gordon Bonan National Centre for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, USA Laurent Bopp Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Erik Buitenhuis School of Environment Sciences, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK Ken Caldeira Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Josep G. Canadell Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Philippe Ciais Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, France Thomas J. Conway NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA Steven Davis Depart. of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution of Washington, Stanford, USA Scott C. Doney Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Pierre Friedlingstein Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, France QUEST, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK Joe L. Hackler Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Christoph Heinze University of Bergen, Norway Richard A. Houghton Woods Hole Research Center, Falmouth, Massachusetts, USA Corinne Le Quéré Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, UK Andrew Lenton CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Tasmania, Australia Ivan Lima Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts, USA Gregg Marland Research Institute for Environment, Energy and Economics, Appalachian State University, Boone, North Carolina, USA Glen P. Peters Center for International Climate and Environmental Research, Oslo, Norway Michael R. Raupach Global Carbon Project, CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research, Canberra, Australia Stephen Sitch School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK Jerry Tijputra University of Bergen, Norway

GCP - Carbon Budget 2010 http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi. 10.1038/nclimate1332. Published online 4 December 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332

Units 1 Pg 1 Petagram 1x1015g 1 Billion metric tons 1 Gigaton 1 Tg 1 Teragram 1x1012g 1 Million metric tons 1 Kg Carbon (C) 3.67 Kg Carbon Dioxide (CO2)

Fossil Fuel & Cement CO2 Emissions Growth rate 2010 5.9% yr Growth rate 2000-2010 3.1% per year Growth rate 2009 -1.3% per year Growth rate 1990-1999 1% per year - Uncertainty (6-10%) Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Marland et al. 2009

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2010 Growth Rates China 10.4% 2000 (C tons x 1,000,000) Carbon Emissions per year 2500 1500 USA 4.1% 1000 Russian Fed. 500 0 1990 Japan India 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 9.4% 5.8% 6.8% 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Profile Examples 2010 (C tons x 1,000,000) Carbon Emissions per year 180 140 UK Canada Australia 100 Spain 60 The Netherlands 20 0 1990 Denmark 2000 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2011; Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 2010

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions Growth in 2010 Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC, Supplementary Information

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Production and Consumption) Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC

Impacts of Economic Crises on C Emissions Peters et al. 2011, Nature CC

Top 20 CO2 FF Emitters & Per Capita Emissions 2010 (tons x 1,000,000) 1500 1000 500 0 Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011; Population World Bank 2011 Per Capita Emissions 2000 (tons C person y-1) Total Carbon Emissions 2500

CO2 Emissions by Fossil Fuel Type CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 4 Coal 41% 3 Oil 34% 2 Gas 1 Cement 0 1990 2000 Time (y) Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011 2010

Change in CO2 Emissions from Coal (2008 to 2010) CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) 127% of growth Developed World Global Carbon Project 2011; Data: Boden, Marland, Andres-CDIAC 2011

Carbon in Trade (2004): Emissions embodied in products Net exporting countries (blues) to net importing countries (reds) Davis et al. 2011, PNAS; See also http://supplychainCO2.stanford.edu/

CO2 Emissions from FF and LUC (1960-2010) Current LUC emissions 10% of total CO2 emissions Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience

CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) CO2 Emissions from Land Use Change 1990-1999 1.5 0.7 PgCy-1 2000-2009 1.1 0.7 PgCy-1 1990s Emissions: 1.5 0.7 PgC 2000-2010 Emissions: 1.1 0.7 PgC Dashed line – previous estimate. Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Data: RA Houghton, GFRA 2010

1800 1600 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 Tropical Temperate 18 50 18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 20 10 CO2 emissions (TgC y-1) Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010) Time (y) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Emissions from Land Use Change (1850-2010) 800 600 Latin America S & SE Asia Tropical Africa 400 200 0 -200 18 50 18 60 18 70 18 80 18 90 19 00 19 10 19 20 19 30 19 40 19 50 19 60 19 70 19 80 19 90 20 00 20 10 CO2 emissions (Tg C y-1) 1000 Time (y) R.A. Houghton 2010, personal communication; GFRA 2010

Atmospheric CO2 Concentration End of 2010: 389.6 ppm Annual Growth Rates (decadal means) Annual Mea Growth Rate (ppm y-1) 1970 – 1979: 1.3 ppm y-1 1980 – 1989: 1.6 ppm y1 1990 – 1999: 1.5 ppm y-1 2000 – 2010: 1.9 ppm y-1 Data Source: Thomas Conway, 2011, NOAA/ESRL Scripts Institution 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 2.36 1.63 1.81 2.11 1.83 2.39 1.58 2.20 2.40 1.89 1.22

Human Perturbation of the Global Carbon Budget 2000-2010 (PgC y-1) 7.9 0.5 1.0 0.7 2.5 1.0 (Residual) 4.1 0.2 2.3 0.5 (5 models) Global Carbon Project 2011; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature G; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2010) 9.1 0.5 PgC y-1 5.0 0.2 PgC y-1 50% 0.9 0.7 PgC y-1 2.6 1.0 PgC y-1 26% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 24% 2.4 0.5 PgC y-1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS

References cited in this ppt Boden TA, Marland G, Andres RJ (2011) Global, Regional, and National Fossil-Fuel CO2 Emissions. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, U.S. Department of Energy, Oak Ridge, Tenn., U.S.A. doi 10.3334/CDIAC/00001 V2011 http://cdiac.ornl.gov/trends/emis/meth reg.html Canadell JG et al. (2007) Contributions to accelerating atmospheric CO2 growth from economic activity, carbon intensity, and efficiency of natural sinks. PNAS 104: 18866–18870, http://www.pnas.org/content/104/47/18866.abstract Davis SJ, Peters GP, Caldeira K (2011). The Supply Chain of CO2 Emissions. PNAS v.108, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1107409108 Davis S, Caldeira K (2010) Consumption-based accounting of CO2 emissions. PNAS 107: 5687-5692. http://www.pnas.org/content/107/12/5687 Friedlingstein P, Houghton RA, Marland G, Hackler J, Boden TA, Conway TJ, Canadell JG, Raupach MR, Ciais P, Le Quéré C. Update on CO2 emissions. Nature Geoscience, DOI 10.1038/ngeo 1022, Online 21 November 2010. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/ngeo1022.html Global Forest Resources Assessment (2010) Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations; http://www.fao.org/forestry/fra/fra2010/en/ Global Carbon Project (2011) Carbon budget and trends 2010. http://www.globalcarbonproject.org/carbonbudget International Monetary Fund (2011) World economic outlook. September 2011. http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2011/02 Le Quéré C, Raupach MR, Canadell JG, Marland G et al. (2009) Trends in the sources and sinks of carbon dioxide. Nature geosciences, doi: 10.1038/ngeo689. http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n12/full/ngeo689.html Marland, G., K. Hamal, et al. (2009) How Uncertain Are Estimates of CO2 Emissions? Journal of Industrial Ecology 13: 4-7. http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1530-9290.2009.00108.x/abstract Peters GP, Marland G, Le Quéré C, Boden T, Canadell JG, Raupach MR (2011) Rapid growth in CO2 emissions after the 2008-2009 global financial crisis. Nature Climate Change, doi. 10.1038/nclimate1332. Published online 4 December 2011. http://dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1332 Peters G P, Minx J C, Weber C L, Edenhofer O (2011) Growth in emissions transfer via international trade from 1990 to 2008. Proc. Natl Acad. Sci. USA 108: 8903–8908. http://www.pnas.org/content/108/21/8903 Conway T, Tans P (2011) Trends in atmospheric carbon dioxide. NOAA/ESRL www.esrl.noaa.gov/gmd/ccgg/trends van der Werf et al. (2010) Global fire emissions and the contribution of deforestation, savanna, forest, agricultural, and peat fires (1997–2009). Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 16153-16230. http://www.atmos-chem-physdiscuss.net/10/16153/2010/acpd-10-16153-2010.html

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