Addiction Therapy-2014 Chicago, USA August 4 – 6, 2014 Jesse Milby

Addiction Therapy-2014 Chicago, USA August 4 - 6, 2014 Jesse Milby

Comprehensive Theory of Behavior Jesse B. Milby Ph.D. ABPP University of Alabama at Birmingham International Conference on Addiction Research and Treatment, Chicago, IL. USA Aug. 4-6, 2014

Acknowledgements At Johns Hopkins University 2004-2005 as visiting Professor of Psychiatry and Behavioral Neurobiology, some of the theoretical content was refined from dialogue about elements of the theory, with George Bigelo. Concepts were presented to UAB classes on Theories of Addiction,. Colleagues, especially Rudy Vuchinich, and Dennis Wallace, have provided valuable feedback and encouragement. Dennis Wallace has been particularly helpful with equation development and isomorphism with text language. Research support for studies and manuscript development provided by NIDA, Research Triangle International Inc. Raleigh, N.C. and University of Alabama at Birmingham.

Rationale for a Path to Develop a General Theory of Behavior Current status of broad theories of behavior Need to develop theory to help unify disparate areas of psychological knowledge Current attempts at unifying theory have flaws

Silos of Psychology Knowledge, Phenomena, Lawful Relationship and Micro-Theories - Depressi on - Aggressi on - Cognitiv e distortio n - Etc. - Pers. Traits - Pers. States - Theory of Personal ity - Etc. AbnormalClinical Personali ty - Group function s - Decisio n Making - Group by Pers. Stereo typing - Social Etc. - IQ - DSM DX - Memor y - Neurop sy. Functio ns - Etc. Assessme nt - Etc. - Depressi on - Cog. Distortio n - Preventio n - PTSD th. & Trx Cog-Beh. Therapy Silos of Psychology Knowledge (1) Abnorm al / Clinical Personal ity Theory Social Psycholo gy Psycholo gy Assessm ent Cognitiv e Behavior al Therapy

The Path Proposes: Deduction of principles across domains of existing psychological knowledge and theory development. This process is elegantly argued for, and described succinctly by E.O. Wilson (1998). It is Consilience by synthesis, thus predictive synthesis.

Consilience Wilson’s (1998) makes a compelling argument for a paradigm shift for conceptualization across all areas of human knowledge including behavioral science. Every area of human knowledge may be organized by a small number of natural laws that encompass principles applicable to all areas of human learning. This intellectual quest he calls consilience. It is in the spirit of consilience and concern for a path to unifying knowledge across psychology and behavioral science, that this path toward a unified general theory of behavior is offered.

First Flaws in Mowrer’s Theoretical System (1960) Does not specify when or how behavior is initiated Does not explain a mechanism for evolution of free-flowing behavioral output However, Mowrer’s theory is accepted and assumed to be subsumed, in all its details of conditioning & learning, within the current proposed path. Proposed modifications may correct the flaws

Mowrer’s Theoretical System (1960a: 1960b) and proposed modifications Second Flaw: No effort to articulate with quantifiable theories 1. Formal Axioms and Postulates to address the flaws 2. First efforts to specify equations which may improve predictive precision of the

Flaws in Staats (1997) Theoretical System Does not define goal directed behavior as a key explanatory concept Provide insufficient mechanisms to assess and specify the key explanatory variable: Basic Behavioral Repertoire No effort to articulate with quantifiable theories

Flaws in West’s (2007) Theoretical System Specification lacking for how momentary motivation changes affect behavior No effort to quantify explanatory variables No effort to articulate with quantifiable theories

Flaws in Current Theories that New Path to Theory is Designed to Address No specification of starting and endpoint for explained behavior No accepted specification of the behavior to be explained, i.e. goal directed behavior No logically compelling (mathematical) articulation with other credible mini- theories, especially quantified theories that

Path to Theory utilizes and builds on theoretical concepts of Mowrer and Staats (1996) Path to theory specifies new variables Path to theory attempts quantification Path to theory subsumes Maslow’s Hierarchy of Human Needs as the structure of reinforcement that

Path to Theory subsumes Maslow and Gagne’s (Hierarchies) Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs Gagne’s hierarchy of human learning: classical cond. Instrumental cond. Discrimination learning Concept learning Principle learning Etc.

Maslow’s hierarchy of human needs Sel f Act uali zati on Affi liati on/ Inti ma cy Fa mil y Gr ou ps S he lte r S af et y F o o d Air & W at er

How Maslow’s Hierarchy is Subsumed Under New Theory Lower needs in the Maslow’s hierarchy are most highly reinforcing and elicit behaviors to satisfy those needs until need is met As lower needs are met by targeted goal directed behavior, continued behavior becomes less reinforcing and higher needs more reinforcing, thus eliciting and reinforcing new behaviors higher in the hierarchy

How Gagne’s Hierarchy is Subsumed Under New Theory Increasingly complex forms of learned behavior are presumed to be included in the explanatory concept of the developing Basic Behavioral Repertoire

Initial Explanatory Variables Obs. Beh. Output Space Time

Explanation Occurs at Nexus Obs. behav. output from repertoire Space Time domain of predicted behavioral output

Role of Momentary State of Well Being (SWB) at the Nexus SWB at nexus provides a positive or negative emotional state which compares to the emotional state of potential behaviors available for the nexus SWB at the nexus elicits a behavior from the Basic Behavior Repertoire which best matches the nexus for type (positive or negative) and intensity

Axioms for State of Well Being (SWB) Main Axiom – Each human cell has a net factor positive or negative, designated Po or Ng, which can be represented by a number. This is consistent with, but expands, Mowrer’s reinforcement system. At conception, the net sum of positive and negative factors from two contributing cells approximate zero sum. When a positive net sum dominates progressive mitotic division sums, the growing fetus thrives. When a negative net sum dominates progressive mitotic sums, the growing fetus becomes more vulnerable to premature death.

Axioms for SWB (cont’d) Postulate 1 – Po is a positive state, defined as a neurobiological state, subsuming cognitive, emotional, and behavioral status, which is the perceived net well being of the developing fetus. Its strength is defined by the Po’s positive sum at any moment and any context. The organism is attracted to all phenomena which increase its net positive sum, and repelled by phenomena which reduce its net positive sum. Postulate 2 – Ng is a negative, aversive state, (a neurobiological state, subsuming cognitive, emotional, and behavioral status). It is defined as the Ng sum at any moment and any context. The organism is attracted to all phenomena which reduce its Ng sum, and repelled by all phenomena which increase its Ng sum.

Axioms for SWB (cont’d) Postulate 3 – There is no Ng in pure Po. Postulate 4 – Imperfect Po is dominated by stronger (higher sum) Ng, and imperfect Ng is dominated by stronger, imperfect Po. Postulate 5 – Perfect Po sums, i.e. sums wherein there is no Ng sums, present to dominate, and displace Ng. Approximate net Po positive sums dominate Ng less.

Postulate 6- Prediction of a particular goal directed behavior, or evolving process of goal directed behavior in real time, can be achieved by accumulating and calculating the unique predicted probabilities of each goal directed behavior from the Basic Behavioral Repertoire at a specified nexus of space and time. The predicted behavior is the one with the highest probability. Postulate 7 predicts a most probable behavior at any nexus where there is knowledge of specific goal directed behaviors which are most likely to occur at certain space locations and temporal epochs with a predominant SWB Po or Ng state and intensity. If the highest probable behavior is not emitted, the theory predicts the next most probable behavior for that given nexus.

Corollary 7.1 For a given nexus of Time, Space, and current SWB type and intensity, the predicted probabilities are logically aligned hierarchically. Thus, if during a particular defined temporal epoch the theory predicts the highest goal directed behavioral from the BBR in the context of current nexus variables, and that predicted behavior is not emitted (observed or recorded), then the ncxt most probable behavior from the hierarchy is predicted. This process is continued until a current goal directed behavior is predicted and observed or a new behavior not in the current hierarchy of the BBR is recorded and assigned an initial Po or Ng value and

Theory assumes goal directed behaviors from idiosyncratic BBR’s for each individual can be specified using empirical methods, i.e. observation technology, selfreport etc.

List of Common Behaviors with Their Probability for Thursday, 8-9 p.m. working at office listening to p.01 music p.10 eating dinner operating p.01 computer p.20 using telephone watching TV p.02 p.30 reading p.04 others not listed, p.32 total p. 1.0

Fig. X. The narrowing cone of predicted behavior from a compendium of goal directed behavior where specifying the space and time nexus, then the SWB type and intensity with relative match to SWB type and intensity maximizes behavior prediction.

How probability of predicted behavior across time can be increased by knowledge of Ng-Po dominance. Here where Ng is dominant, two predicted behaviors emerge twice during the time span 6 pm to 8 pm. Space (office) Time (8-9 pm) Predicted Beh. From BBR Time Ng Dominance (6-7 pm) Working at office Operating computer Operating computer

Theory Equation Variables and Definitions SWB momentary state of well being where either Po or Ng is dominant Po designates the net Po state at evolving time with an identified intensity Ng designates the net Ng state at evolving time with an identified intensity Nexus the temporal epoch at a specified space, and SWB type and

Fig. 4a. Added prediction stemming from inclusion of the momentary SWB at the time a goal directed behavior is emitted from the nexus. Predicted is a class of behaviors from the repertoire that either reduce, avoid, or escape Ng, or increase or maintain Po. Context Nexus Emitted Class of Behaviors Time Space (stimuli) SWB Po 5 behaviors maintain Po Thurs. 8-9 pm 8 behaviors from BBR Basic Behaviors Repertoire (BBR) 1000 behaviors SWB - Ng 3 behaviors reduce Ng

Fig. 4b. Ultimate prediction of behavior from among class of behaviors of the Ng or Po class, depends upon the intensity of the SWB as Ng high or low, or as Po high or low. Illustrated is the Nexus for the same Time and Space as in Fig. 4a, where SWB Po, but situations where Net Po is high and a situation where net Po is low. Emitted Behavior From Nexus Class Po High or Low SWB Po Hi behaviors Po hi 4 SWB Po Low Po low 5 behaviors from BBR 1

Fig. 5. Prediction of a specific behavior based on observed or measured probable behaviors at the nexus of a specified space, temporal epoch, and stimulus compound from the added variable SWB where either Ng or Po is dominant. Ng vs. Po Space A Home 25 behaviors Epoch Dominance 1 hr. 8-9 p.m. 12 behaviors Emitted Behavior Ng dominant Po dominant 5 behaviors 7 behaviors Space B Recreation Center 12 behaviors 1 hr. Ng dominant 6-7 pm. 6 behaviors Po dominant 2 behaviors 4 behaviors Space C Office 1 hr. 9 behaviors 8-9 p.m. 5 behaviors Ng dominant 2 behaviors Po dominant 3 behaviors

Predicting behavior when Space, Time, BBR components, & SWB are known

List of Common Behaviors with Their Probability for Thursday, 8-9 p.m. working at office p.01 eating dinner p.01 using telephone p.02 reading p.04 listening to music p.10 operating computer p.20 watching TV p.30 others not listed, p.32

Building Predictive Equations from Theory Variables & Derived Probabilities Space- hours in 24 behavior occurs in specified space. For home space 14/24 hr. .583 Time- specified hour(s) in 24 within which behavior is to be predicted. For specified epoch 8-9pm, 1/24 hr. .042 Probability of Behavior 2 (eating dinner) from example BBR .01

Prediction Assuming Probabilities are Additive 14/24 1/24 Bh2 ( .01) .583 .042 .01 .635 But prediction does not account for SWB type and intensity value of Bh2 from the BBR, nor the type or intensity match of SWB during the current nexus epoch

Predicting Behavior Using Knowledge of BBR behaviors & associated SWB type and intensity, & current epoch SWB type/intensity For a match of type SWB, the predictive equation utilizes an additive constant with value 1.0 subtracted from the subtrahend of the BBR intensity SWB value minus the current SWB intensity value. The operation is 1.0 – (BBR, SWB intensity – current SWB intensity) The equation then multiplies the summed probabilities by the subtrahend result of 1.0 – the difference between BBR, SWB intensity and current SWB intensity.

Match vs. No Match Implications from Predictive Equation If BBR, SWB type & intensity & SWB type and intensity are the same (i.e. a perfect match) net subtraction is zero and summed probabilities are multiplied by 1.0 and maintain their highest predictive probability. Any subtraction yielding an imperfect match, say BBR SWB .5 – current SWB .4, results in the multiplicand being reduced. In this case it is reduced from X 1.0 to X

Final Predictive Equation S T BBR prob. X (1.0 – [BBB SWB intensity value – current SWB intensity value]) Nexus BBR predicted behavioral probability

Table XYZ Table XYZ-2 Illustrates results of equation whereby nexus probabilities (probs) are calculated by multiplying probabs of Space, i.e. in the first row (8/24) .33, X Time (8/24) .33, and then adding the probability of behavior working at desk (p .01) from the BBR. These operations are followed by the mathematical operations from a match comparison of the BBR SWB type and intensity match, with current nexus SWB type and intensity. The operation is 1.0 – (Ng.2 – Ng.2) 1.0- 0 1, with the multiplier X 1.0, yielding a prediction probability 0.1189.

BBR List of Observed Behaviors in Specified Space Office Work at desk Home Eating dinner Using telephone Watching TV Reading, home Listening to music Operating computer Others not listed BBR List Nexus Probabilities SW B SWB Value Prob beh. S T BBR Ng .2 .01 8/24 .33 X 8/24 .33 .01 Nexus Probabilit ies Multiplied 1.0(BBR, SWB type & Value- .1189 1-(Ng.2- - Current SWB Match Value) X Ng .2) 0 X 1 Predicted Probabilities 0.1189

BBR List of Observed Behaviors in Specified Space BBR List Nexus Probabilities Nexu s Probs Multi plied 1.0(BBR , SWB type & Value - Predicte Current d SWB Probs Match Value) X SW B SW B Valu e Prob beh. Office Work at desk Ng .2 .01 8/24 .3 8/24 3 X .33 Home Eating dinner Po .1 .01 .3 14/24 .01 .2025 x 1-(Po.1 3 X .19 Ng .1) 0) X 1 25 0.2025 Using telephone Po .2 .02 Reading, home Po Listening to Po S T .04 .10 0.1189 “ .199 5 .02 .2195 x 1-(Po.2 Ng .2) 0 X 1 0. 2195 .3 ‘ .199 5 .04 .2395 x 1-(Po .3 Ng .2) .9 X 0.2155 .10 .2995 0.2995 3 X .3 .01 .1189 x 1-(Ng.2Ng .2) 0 X 1 .3 3 X .3 BB R .3 “ x 1- (Po.3-

BBR List of Observed Behaviors in Specified Space BBR List Nexus Probabilities SWB SWB Value Prob beh. Operating computer Po .3 .20 Watching TV Po S .33 X .3 Po .4 “ .1 995 .30 .33 X Others not listed T .32 Total P 1.0 .33 X “ .1 995 BBR Nexus Probabili ties Multiplie d 1.0(BBR, SWB type & Value- - Current SWB Match Value) X Predicted Probabilities .20 .3995 x 1- (Po.3Ng.2) .9 X .9 0.3595 .30 .4995 x 1- (Po.3Po.3) 0 X 1 0.4995 “ .32 prediction, assuming .1 Total perfect match SWB type 99 P 1.0 and intensity 5 .5195 x 1- (Po .4 Po .4) 0 X 1

Current Path to Theory Strengths Potential for organizing and explaining multiple domains of psychological knowledge & lawful phenomena using concepts & principles shared across knowledge domains. Quantitative logical structure clearly implies experiments derived to gather supporting or nonsupporting evidence for the theory. From proposed & future equations, it may be possible, even when a proposed variable cannot be precisely defined, to predict behaviors for an individual at a specified nexus. Potential to be used for multiple applied purposes. May facilitate possibility it can be integrated with, if not subsume, other circumscribed

Current Path to Theory Problems (1) Problematic definition of goal directed behavior Existing measure of space, precision GPS, may not be precise enough to specify details of a true discriminative stimulus for emitted behavior. No existing measurement for specifying extant BBR No empirical data to support theory’s implications and predictions No existing quantitative articulation with

Current Path to Theory Problems (2) Equation language (common math notation) does not specify precisely what text is saying. Thus current text and equation language are not isomorphic. We are working on this! Because similar constructs (emotional state and intensity) are used for the equation and to record and codify behavior via artificial intelligence (AI) software for each individual’s Basic Behavioral

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